Jet A-1 Market Analysis & Forecast 2025

Navigating Supply, Demand and Price Dynamics

The global Jet A-1 aviation fuel market is navigating a period of significant transition. Following a phase of vigorous demand recovery, the sector now contends with moderating growth, evolving supply-demand fundamentals, persistent crude oil price volatility, and a complex geopolitical landscape impacting trade flows. This analysis delves into the current state of the conventional Jet A-1 market and examines the near-term outlook (2025-2026), leveraging recent data and forecasts with a focus on the pivotal U.S. market.

Current Market Dynamics - Global Demand Deceleration

The robust rebound in global jet fuel demand witnessed in 2022 and 2023, exceeding 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) annually during that period, is demonstrably decelerating. Recent mobility indicators and agency forecasts point towards a normalization of growth trends. The International Energy Agency (IEA), for instance, projects a more constrained jet fuel demand increase of only 230 kb/d in 2024, reflecting the stabilization of air traffic patterns post-initial recovery. While China remains a significant demand center, its contribution is expected to diminish due to anticipated economic slowdowns and substitution effects from alternative transport technologies.

Supply Landscape & OPEC+ Posture

Global liquid fuel supply growth continues to be spearheaded by non-OPEC+ nations, primarily the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana. Conversely, OPEC+ output remains subject to voluntary production curtailments, although a gradual unwinding of these cuts is anticipated from mid-2025 onwards. This interplay between non-OPEC+ expansion and OPEC+ strategic adjustments is a key variable influencing market balance.

Refining Capacity Realignment & Margin Pressures

A significant geographical realignment of global refining capacity is underway. Substantial new capacity additions are materializing in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East, contrasting with rationalization efforts (closures or conversions to biofuels) in Europe and the United States, exemplified by the planned closure of LyondellBasell's Houston refinery. This shift is fundamentally altering global product trade flows, increasing logistical complexity and amplifying the potential impact of maritime chokepoint disruptions. Concurrently, global refining margins faced downward pressure in late 2024 and early 2025. Notably, U.S. refineries achieved record Jet A-1 yields in 2024, optimizing operations likely in response to relative demand strength and margin signals for aviation fuel.

U.S. Market Snapshot

Within the United States, domestic Jet A-1 production remains relatively stable at approximately 1.8 Mb/d. The nation continues its role as a key net exporter, particularly to the Americas, with exports to Mexico reaching record levels in 2024. However, regional imbalances persist, highlighted by elevated inventories in PADD 5 (US West Coast) during 2024, which consequently depressed regional refining margins. As a key pricing benchmark, the US Gulf Coast (USGC) Jet A-1 spot price was recorded at $2.069 per gallon in March 2025.

Geopolitical Factors & Logistical Impacts

The geopolitical landscape continues to exert considerable influence. Disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, while demonstrating contained direct price impact thus far, have significantly increased transit times and freight costs by forcing rerouting, adding friction to global supply chains, including those for Jet A-1. Furthermore, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict persists in reshaping energy flows, impacting global trade patterns and indirectly influencing U.S. export destinations for refined products.

Market Outlook (2025-2026) - Demand Growth Forecasts & Divergence

Significant divergence exists among major energy agencies regarding the magnitude of global oil demand growth for 2025, with forecasts ranging from 0.9 mb/d (EIA) to 1.4 mb/d (OPEC). This highlights considerable uncertainty, although the consensus points towards continued moderation compared to the initial recovery phase. Structural factors, including ongoing improvements in aircraft fuel efficiency, are expected to partially decouple passenger traffic growth from fuel consumption increases. The IEA has suggested global oil demand could potentially peak within the current decade. Within the US, Jet A-1 consumption is forecast by the EIA to surpass pre-2019 levels, reaching 1.77 Mb/d in 2025 and 1.79 Mb/d in 2026.

Supply Projections & Market Balance

The prevailing outlook suggests global supply growth, driven by non-OPEC+, may exceed demand growth from mid-2025 onward. This potential imbalance could lead to global inventory builds, reversing the drawdowns anticipated through early 2025.

Price Forecasts (Crude & Jet A-1)

Reflecting the anticipated market balance shift, the EIA projects a downward trend for Brent crude prices, forecasting averages of $68/bbl in 2025 and $61/bbl in 2026, contingent on the absence of major new geopolitical disruptions. Consequently, US wholesale Jet A-1 prices are projected to average $2.07/gallon in 2025 and $2.18/gallon in 2026. The EIA also suggests the relative demand strength for Jet A-1 could support its margins compared to gasoline and diesel in 2025.

Conclusion: Strategic Implications

The Jet A-1 market is navigating a complex transition characterized by normalizing demand growth, impactful aircraft efficiency gains, shifting global refining centers, persistent geopolitical influences on logistics, and inherent price volatility linked to crude oil fundamentals. Successfully operating within this environment necessitates sophisticated market analysis, robust risk management protocols, and agile logistical planning. Establishing relationships with reliable, informed partners capable of providing expert brokerage and logistical support is paramount for securing efficient and stable Jet A-1 supply in the dynamic years ahead.